Tue. Jul 16th, 2024

‘El Nino has been fierce in the Central Highlands and the South since the end of the year’

'El Nino has been fierce in the Central Highlands and the South since the end of the year' 3
'El Nino has been fierce in the Central Highlands and the South since the end of the year' 3

– In early June, the international meteorological agency announced that El Nino had begun to appear, but why has Vietnam experienced hot days with many records set since April-May?

– First we must understand about El Nino.

Historical data shows that usually in El Nino years, Vietnam has higher than average temperatures for many years, with a lack of rainfall, causing heat, drought and saltwater intrusion.

Ms. Pham Thi Thanh Nga responded to VnExpress about El Nino.

Last April and May was the period before El Nino formed, with a rapid phase change from cold to hot, with strong disturbances in ocean surface temperature, leading to forced changes in the atmosphere.

However, the unusual heat in April-May is not due to the impact of El Nino but due to the global warming effect leading to many changes in atmospheric circulation;

– El Nino appears right at the peak of summer in the North and Central regions, but why has it been cool in the North over the past 20 days?

– As mentioned above, the impact of El Nino on temperature is very different between active periods and is often most obvious during the developing and weakening stages.

However, in reality, from temperature monitoring data in the first 20 days of June in the North and Central regions, it is often 0.5-1 degree Celsius higher than the average value of many years in the same period, in some places 1.5-1.

– How will El Nino impact the three regions of Vietnam?

– It is forecast that in most regions of the country the average temperature will tend to be higher than normal;

Rainfall will be in short supply over most of the country with a common level of 25-50%, even in the history of Buon Ma Thuot, which recorded a shortfall of 69%.

The activity of storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea and affecting Vietnam may not be much, but concentrated in the middle of the season, the nature is more unusual in both intensity and trajectory.

El Nino years can also have unusual heavy rains and harmful cold in some areas, for example, the 2015-2016 El Nino period had record heavy rains in Quang Ninh from July 25 to August 4.

'El Nino has been fierce in the Central Highlands and the South since the end of the year'

Da River has a bare bottom, June 2023.

– When and in what areas is the most negative impact of El Nino expected in Vietnam?

– El Nino combined with the global warming trend due to climate change makes Asia likely to suffer strong heat waves, with record-breaking temperatures in South Asia, southern China to Southeast Asia

In Vietnam, the most negative impacts of El Nino are during the period of development, recession and disintegration, especially heat waves and reduced rain in some areas, leading to water shortages, droughts, and saltwater intrusion.

– In Vietnam, how long will El Nino last?

– According to current forecast results of major centers around the world, El Nino may last until early spring 2024 with a probability of about 80%.

The impact of El Nino on Vietnam will increase in the last months of 2023 and early 2024. The dry season in the Central Highlands and the South is likely to be more severe, drought and saltwater intrusion may occur on a large scale.

Gia Chinh

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